Confidence Scoring: How to Size Your Trades With Auguris Signals
Each Auguris signal comes with a confidence percentage. High conviction? Go bigger. Lower confidence? Size down or skip. Here is how confidence scoring works and how to use it in your trading.
What Is the Confidence Score?
The confidence score is a percentage from 0% to 100% that reflects how strongly our model believes in a given signal. It is calculated by weighing multiple factors together — including RSI, volume deviation, ADX, and historical pattern performance.
A higher score means more indicators are aligned in the same direction. A lower score means the setup is mixed or less certain.
How to Read It
| Confidence | Meaning | Suggested Action |
|---|---|---|
| 80–100% | Strong alignment across all indicators. High conviction setup. | Full position size. This is the kind of signal worth acting on quickly. |
| 60–79% | Most indicators agree but one or two are neutral. Solid setup with minor uncertainty. | Standard position size. A good trade with manageable risk. |
| 40–59% | Mixed signals. Some indicators support the trade, others do not. | Reduced position size or wait for confirmation before entering. |
| Below 40% | Weak alignment. The setup lacks conviction. | Consider skipping entirely or using it only as a watchlist alert. |
Why It Matters
Not every signal is created equal. Markets are noisy, and even good systems produce setups that range from near-certain to speculative. The confidence score gives you an instant way to filter.
Without it, you would treat every signal the same — risking the same amount on a shaky setup as on a textbook one. That is how accounts blow up.
With confidence scoring, you can:
- Scale position size — Allocate more capital to high-confidence trades and less to lower ones.
- Filter your trades — Only act on signals above your personal threshold (e.g. 65%+).
- Reduce emotional decisions — The number removes guesswork. You do not have to debate whether a setup “looks good enough.”
A Practical Example
Say you receive two signals in the same hour:
- BTC Long — 87% confidence. RSI is oversold, volume deviation is +65%, ADX is at 32. Everything lines up.
- ETH Long — 48% confidence. RSI is neutral, volume is slightly below average, ADX is at 18. The trend is weak.
With confidence scoring, the decision is straightforward. You take the BTC trade at full size. For ETH, you either skip it or enter with a fraction of your normal position and a tighter stop.
Setting Your Own Threshold
There is no single “right” cutoff — it depends on your risk tolerance and trading style.
- Conservative traders might only act on signals above 70%.
- Moderate traders might use 55% as their floor.
- Aggressive traders might take anything above 40% but scale size accordingly.
The key is consistency. Pick a threshold, stick with it, and let the confidence score do the filtering for you. Over time, you will see how different cutoffs affect your results and can adjust from there.